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Prevenindo um colapso socioambiental na Amazônia: na fronteira de potenciais estados estáveis alternativos

Tipping point: um nível de mudança nas propriedades de um sistema além do qual um sistema se reorganiza, muitas vezes de forma abrupta, e não retorna para o estado inicial mesmo se os condutores (fatores responsáveis) da mudança sejam reduzidos/diminuídos. Para o sistema climático, refere-se para um limiar crítico quando o clima global ou regional muda de um estado estável para outro estado estável . Fonte: Glossário de termos via Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2022).    Uma imersão nos limiares de tolerância termal e hídrica de florestas da Amazônia Diante do status quo de perdas similares a 10.500 km 2  (Figura 1), na prática, para Amazônia ecossistema: quão próximo estamos agora de uma transição crítica eventual de estado estável alternativo significa o quê? A perda atual de cobertura florestal acumula em torno de 15% 1 do ecossistema Amazônia 2 . Como advertido 3–5 , por Nobre & Lovejoy (2018), uma perda adicional de apenas 5% deve atingir uma trans...
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Amazon deforestation in the dry season has been higher under current than previous Brazilian state's governability: an observation based on the DETER-INPE system

Is Amazon explosive deforestation in the last April 2022 warning its maximum peak under the Brazilian state's current governability?

This week the IMAZON's Deforestation Alert System (SAD) showed that Amazon deforestation for the month of April was 54% higher when compared to the same month of the previous year. The 1,197 km2 deforested of the last month is highlighted by the IMAZON release as the worst April in 15 years. They highlight the urgency of action to reduce potential deforestation during this 2022 dry season.

Deforestation (and fire activity) tends to be highest during the dry season of each year, as observed from historical data, and scientific analyzes that link climatic factors and such human activities. In front of the picture presented by last April, it is expected to avoid a greater loss during the dry season. However, this can still be an arduous task for Brazilian society whether the current governability remains inert or absent in the protection and care of goods and national natural resources.

In the mid-1990s, deforestation reached 29,059 km2 (i.e., 1995) when a sociologist self-classified as centre-left (in the political spectrum) assumed the presidency of the Brazilian state. He won the presidential race in the first round against a metallurgist with strong wing-left traits. Now, election polls indicate that a far-right politician who is Brazil's current president will not be re-elected this year to be on the front lines in 2023.

A curious fact that links these two temporal events - with explosive deforestation and presidential elections, would be that people must now be intuiting the current governability change as a fact increasingly concrete. Inflation economics and unemployment in ascension, and the total lack of control - and the instability of governance - of the Brazilian state.

In sense, the concern related to a deforestation rate that could potentially reach 15,000 km2 is also an increasingly evident factor in this dynamic, as the cover loss practices of the April 2022 are the harbinger - more losses of forest are expected to come if nothing continues to be done with due care and rigour required for the Amazon and the other biomes of the Brazilian state.

How does the Amazon deforestation rate during the dry season vary and distinguish between current and previous governability?

Brazilian state's DETER serves governments and the whole society as a vital instantaneous guide to support inspection and control of deforestation and forest degradation. It was developed by INPE as a rapid survey system for alerts of evidence of change in the Amazon forest cover. In this way and at the same time, it can also serve as a parameter for evaluating the performance of governments in relation to the control of deforestation.

It can be expected that the deforestation rate reported by DETER system will tend to be lower whether a government acts proactively and rigorously in the face of the DETER's instantaneous alerts. So, DETER data were used to investigate how the Amazon deforestation rate during the dry season varied and distinguished between current and previous governability.

As the observations of the deforestation rate under the current government are still ongoing and the data from TerraBrasilis for some months of 2015 were absent (i.e., from January to July), comparisons between governments were used only for the periods 2016-2018 and 2019-2021. The deforestation rate in the dry season (referred to the May-September) was notably higher under the current governability of the Brazilian state.

Results showed that Legal Amazon's average monthly deforestation rate (for the interval between May-September) was two times bigger under the current government (2019-2021: mean= 1253 km2, standard deviaton= 336 km2) than under the previous one (2016-2018: mean= 589 km2, standard deviaton= 89 km2).

Legal Amazon's average monthly deforestation rate by Brazil's government periods (2016-2018 and 2019-2021) based on data from the DETER-INPE system. Error bars indicate the standard deviation from the mean.
Legal Amazon's average monthly deforestation rate by Brazil's government periods (2016-2018 and 2019-2021) based on data from the DETER-INPE system. Error bars indicate the standard deviation from the mean.

References and notes

1. Imazon. Desmatamento na Amazônia cresce 54% e atinge o pior abril dos últimos 15 anos. [Website] Imazon, May 11, 2022. Available at: https://imazon.org.br/imprensa/desmatamento-na-amazonia-cresce-54-e-atinge-pior-abril-dos-ultimos-15-anos/. Accessed May 12, 2022. 
2. Nathália S Carvalho et al 2021 Environ. Res. Lett. 16 125009. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac3aa3 
3. Lerer, R., Alves, J., Nogueira, P. & Lema, A. Sinal de Fumaça – Monitor Socioambiental. https://www.sinaldefumaca.com/ (2021).
4. SOUSA, Rafaela. "Desmatamento na Amazônia"; Brasil Escola. Available at: https://brasilescola.uol.com.br/brasil/desmatamento-da-amazonia.htm. Accessed May 14, 2022.
5. SILVA, Daniel Neves. "Plano Real"; Brasil Escola. Available at: https://brasilescola.uol.com.br/historiab/itamar-economia.htm. Accessed May 14, 2022.
5. The economist. President Jair Bolsonaro is bad for Brazil's economy. The Economist, Nov 13th 2021. Available at: https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2021/11/13/president-jair-bolsonaro-is-bad-for-brazils-economy. Accessed December 14, 2021.
6. OLIVER STUENKEL | CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE. Brazil’s Polarization and Democratic Risks. CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE, February 17, 2021. Available at: https://carnegieendowment.org/2021/02/17/brazil-s-polarization-and-democratic-risks-pub-83783. Accessed June 17, 2021. 
7. O Estado de S.Paulo. Mistura de inflação com desemprego. Notas & Informações, O Estado de S.Paulo, May 14, 2022. Available at: https://opiniao.estadao.com.br/noticias/notas-e-informacoes,mistura-de-inflacao-com-desemprego,70004065088. Accessed May 14, 2022.
8. Imazon. Plataforma de inteligência artifical estima risco de desmatamento de 15 mil km2 na Amazônia em 2022. [Website] Imazon, February 17, 2022. Available at: https://imazon.org.br/imprensa/plataforma-de-inteligencia-artificial-estima-risco-de-desmatamento-de-15-mil-km%C2%B2-na-amazonia-em-2022/. Accessed February 17, 2022.
9. INSTITUTO NACIONAL DE PESQUISAS ESPACIAIS. COORDENAÇÃO GERAL DE OBSERVAÇÃO DA TERRA. PROGRAMA DE MONITORAMENTO DA AMAZÔNIA E DEMAIS BIOMAS. Avisos – Bioma Amazônia – Available at: http://terrabrasilis.dpi.inpe.br/downloads/. Accessed: June 14, 2022.
10. The dry season was defined here from May to September, which represents 41% of the area and covers of most part of the Amazon basin as per Ref. 2 [i.e., Nathália S Carvalho et al 2021 Environ. Res. Lett.].
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